Italian and overall EMU industrial production are unlikely to have increased in April, as most of the correlated climate indicators deteriorated. Following its usual seasonal pattern, the EMU trade balance is likely to have gone down in April, just like the corresponding German figure.

Eurostat is publishing the final EMU HICP data for May. We expect the preliminary estimate of 2.7% to be confirmed. In the coming months, the inflation rate will probably remain at around the current level.

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